Showing posts with label Mumbai. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mumbai. Show all posts

Thursday, August 13, 2009

France and Germany exit recession

France and Germany exit recession

Shoppers in Printemps department store
Consumer spending has risen in both France and Germany

The French and German economies both grew by 0.3% between April and June, bringing to an end year-long recessions in Europe's largest economies.

Stronger exports and consumer spending, as well as government stimulus packages, contributed to the growth.

The data came as a surprise, with few analysts expecting Germany and France to start to recover so soon.

But economic activity in the eurozone fell by 0.1%, showing the region as a whole is still in recession.

It was the fifth consecutive quarter of economic contraction in the eurozone, but was a marked improvement on the 2.5% drop recorded in the first three months of the year.

UK reaction

ANALYSIS
Hugh Pym
Hugh Pym, Chief economics correspondent

Germany and France can now say they are technically out of recession, while the UK is still in it.

The UK government's claims that it is a global recession maybe rings a little less true in terms of the mood music from each country over the last couple of days.

We've had the French finance minister hailing the figures as a sign of recovery and more optimistic noises from the US Federal Reserve.

Yet at the same time the governor of the Bank of England has said the recovery in the UK will be slow and protracted.

The key question now is whether, over the next year, the UK is going to be helped by Germany and France or held back by things like household debt and the state of our banking system.


Markets reacted positively to the news, with the main German and French markets up more than 1% at midday before later dropping back slightly.

In London, the FTSE 100 index also rose, with traders anticipating a positive effect on the UK economy, which by contrast shrank by 0.8% in the second quarter.

Asked about why the UK seemed to be lagging behind, Business Secretary Lord Mandelson said: "Different economies will show different patterns of behaviour."

"But the key point is all these economies rely on each other; 55 to 56% of our trade is with the rest of Europe. So when [they are] recovering that is good news for our manufacturers and our exports here."

France and Germany may have been less hard hit than the UK by the global economic slowdown because their financial sectors, which were at the heart of the crisis, account for a smaller proportion of their economies.

Export recovery

Germany was thrown into recession earlier in the year because its exports collapsed.

The latest figures showed German exports had grown at their fastest pace for nearly three years at 7%, with particularly strong growth in demand from rapidly-growing economies such as China.

The country's Federal Statistics Office said that household and government expenditure had also boosted growth.

It added that imports had declined "far more sharply than exports, which had a positive effect on GDP growth".

"These [GDP] figures should encourage us," said Germany's Economy Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg. "They show that the strongest decline in economic performance likely lies behind us."

Reaction among analysts to the signs of Germany's recovery, however, was mixed.

"The recession has ended, and it has ended sooner than we all thought. We expect to see growth of 1% in the third quarter, which is very strong for Germany, and I wouldn't rule out the chance of even better growth," said Andreas Rees at Unicredit.

But there are concerns that the banking system across Europe is still fragile and that the growth is reliant on government stimulus spending that will eventually have to come to an end.

BBC Europe business reporter Mark Sanders said that although the surprise news was highly welcome for those that have been suffering, there were questions about how strong and credible the economic recovery is.

"To draw a medical analogy, we've got the patient waking from a coma and talking to medical staff," he said. "They're not necessarily going to be running any marathons soon."

GDP growth rates in Germany, France, Italy and the UK

Consumer spending

In France, economy minister Christine Lagarde said: "The data is very surprising. After four negative quarters France is coming out of the red."

Ms Lagarde said that consumer spending and strong exports had helped to pull France out of recession.

CASE STUDY
Plastics factory worker
Plastics manufacturer Wirthwein Nauen, Germany
Chief executive Ulf Sauerwald says his business is growing. Orders are rising and it is taking on more staff.

"Turnover in the whole group increased from 15 to 20% at the start of the year. We've had major new orders coming in, have developed new products in the car sector and are planning to open a new factory in Spain," he says.

But the workers on the factory floor are not seeing a recovery yet.

"It is tough right now... we don't get paid overtime and don't buy expensive stuff like cars," says employee Christopher Schmidt.

"What we see is that consumption is holding up," she said.

Official figures showed that household consumption rose by 0.4% in the second quarter.

She said government incentive schemes for trading in old cars, together with falling prices, were helping consumers.

Foreign trade contributed 0.9% to the GDP figure - a "very strong impact", said Ms Lagarde.

"[The figures are] a positive surprise, as many people were expecting slightly negative numbers," said Marie Diron at Oxford Economics.

But she warned that growth was "still very fragile".

"Investment is down, we still have surprisingly low stock levels, and growth is boosted by the fact that imports fell sharply," she added.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Pakistani mourners honour Bhutto

Pakistani mourners honour Bhutto

Pakistan has marked a year since the assassination of Benazir Bhutto with a two-minute silence, while thousands of mourners visited her mausoleum.

President Asif Ali Zardari, her widower, used the occasion to call for peace and democracy in Pakistan and the resolution of problems through talks.

Analysts say the call was also aimed at India, which blames the recent attack on Mumbai on Pakistani militants.

Mrs Bhutto died in a suicide attack in Rawalpindi after an election rally.

Mourning ceremonies focused on the Bhutto family mausoleum in Garhi Khuda Bakhsh, in the southern province of Sindh.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon says he expects an independent inquiry into her death to be set up soon.

Tears and flowers

Local police officials in Garhi Khuda Bakhsh told news agencies that about 150,000 people had travelled to the site.

Dialogue is our biggest arsenal
Asif Ali Zardari
Pakistani president

They came from around the country, by train, plane, car and even on foot, chanting Bhutto slogans, some wailing and beating their chests in an outpouring of emotion, reports.

Mourners kissed her grave and laid flowers at the mausoleum, where official ceremonies were delayed because the site was shrouded in winter mist and fog for much of Saturday morning.

These were her devoted supporters, but many other Pakistanis were also feeling the loss of the charismatic politician, famous abroad and at home, our correspondent says.

Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani paid tribute in a televised address, saying Mrs Bhutto had "worked for poor segments, for poor people and she was the only ray of hope for the people of this country, she was a hope for the region".

Mr Zardari delivered a televised speech from the family home in Naudero, Sindh.

"Dialogue is our biggest arsenal," he said.

"The solution to the problem of the region... is politics, is dialogue and is democracy in Pakistan.

"I want to tell the oldest democracy and the largest democracies of this world: listen to us, learn from us. We have lost our people, we do not talk about war, we do not talk about vengeance."

Thousands of police officers have been deployed in Garhi Khuda Bakhsh, amid fears that Mr Zardari could also be targeted during his visit to the mausoleum.

Multiple crises

Eulogies to Bhutto gloss over her mixed record when in power and her controversial decision to make a deal with Pakistan's military leader, Gen Pervez Musharraf, in order to return from exile, our correspondent adds.

Benazir Bhutto. File photo
Many Pakistanis say they sorely miss Benazir Bhutto

But her assassination by suspected Islamist militants shook the nation to the core and although Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party and her husband swept to power in the wake of her death, there is still a feeling she left a vacuum that has not been filled, she says.

Pakistanis are missing her political experience and international stature, as they face crises ranging from a raging Islamist insurgency to dangerous tensions with India, our correspondent notes.

Pakistan has redeployed some troops from the north-west to strengthen its border defences, while India has advised its citizens against travelling to Pakistan.

On Friday, the UN secretary general expressed hopes that a UN investigation into Mrs Bhutto's assassination could be set up in the near future and said he was committed to helping Pakistan's search for "truth and justice".

Earlier this year, British detectives investigating the fatal attack in Rawalpindi said Mrs Bhutto had died from the effect of a bomb blast, not gunfire.

Their account matched that of the Pakistani authorities.

But Bhutto's party has insisted she was shot by an assassin and accused the government of a cover-up.


Are you in Pakistan? Have you been attending any of the ceremonies today? Send your comment